Tuesday, May 14, 2024
TODAY’S WEATHER DISCUSSION AND FORECAST
..Good Morning.
..Today we have clear skies across the mountain with light winds mainly from the North East this morning. The morning Fog in the Valley is slowly clearing out with another day in the upper 80s there. For the mountains today’s temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s for most areas. Cooler at the higher elevations.
..There are a few changes to the forecast this morning that will affect the next couple of days. An upper area of Low Pressure will slowly move across the Region later today and Wednesday.
..This will bring an increase in Clouds mainly Cumulus, with a chance for Thunderstorms along the 395 corridor, the upper Deserts, as well as the local mountains.
..As this area of Low pressure moves through, a weak short wave will pass over the Southern parts of the SoCal area as well as the Northern Baja. Upper level moisture associated with this wave will bring instability as well as a chance for afternoon T/Storms locally. CAPE models show enough energy to produce T/Storms along the Sierra Nevada and locally as well, through tomorrow afternoon.
..Currently the chances for afternoon T/Storms is at around 20-40% for the next 36hours locally, and 50% or more along the 395corridor along the Sierras.
..LOOKING AHEAD:
..All of this will pass by Thursday as the Low passes to our East. High pressure will slowly build from the North across the West bringing warmer temperatures to all of SoCal and the West through the weekend. The chances for Thunderstorms will diminish for our area through at least Saturday when another chance will develop as another area of Low pressure arrives from the West that will draw in Sub Tropical Moisture once again.
TRENDS:
..As we continue to transition to a more Summer like pattern through May and into June, we will continue to be in this weather regime of random Lows in between static areas of High pressure that will give us May Gray and a variety of weather. Temperatures will gradually warm on average as we head into June. The next change will be the Monsoon Season, which due to the changing state of ENSO to what is expected to turn into La Nina by late June, is unsure what that will bring to the far Eastern parts of California, and Arizona/New Mexico at this time. ..Looking at the long range outlook for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is trending towards a busy season there. For the Eastern Pacific, we are expected a quieter that normal season along the Coastal Regions.
..Thanks for joining me here at: www.lakegregoryweather.com
..My weather forecasts are derived from what I feel is the most probable outlook for our area. RC
